Their ace has been on the disabled list since before the All-Star break and their winningest pitcher hasn’t won since June 23. They have used 10 different starting pitchers this season, including four rookies and Jose Lima. They’re the Mets and they’re your World Series favorites.
Most of the books have made the Mets the No. 1 pick to win the Series in this 20th anniversary year of their last championship. This is due almost entirely to the fact that the Mets seem headed for the World Series despite their starting pitching issues.
Because they seem headed for the Fall Classic, they’re obviously a better bet in July or August than any of the AL teams that are far from guaranteed a wild-card berth in the highly competitive AL. If the Mets advance, as the odds suggest, it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which any of the AL’s top contenders—the Red Sox, Yankees, White Sox, Tigers, or Twins—wouldn’t be the favorite in a series of seven games. , especially with the American League once again enjoying the benefit of home field advantage.
Leading 12 games over the second-place Braves in the NL East, the Mets are all but assured of winning their first division title since 1988 and with little to beat in the weak NL, the Mets are prohibitive favorites to win the NL Flag on the books who are still taking such action. (Bodog has the Mets at 5/4 to win the NL pennant.)
Pinnacle Sportsbook has the Mets at 4.6/1 to win the World Series, slightly better than the 4/1 you can get at Nine Sportsbook or Bodog, but it’s not taking league championship action. Bodog has the Mets as a 4/1 second choice behind the 2/1 Tigers.
Pinnacle has the Tigers at almost 5.5/1 and they can be had at 5/1 in Nine.
We mentioned just weeks after the White Sox won the 2005 series that the Mets were worth a future play at 33/1 for 2006 because significant moves were likely. Of course, those odds were drastically reduced with the signing of Billy Wagner and the Carlos Delgado trade. While 1/33 looks great now, the Mets appear to have their work cut out for them if they plan to add a third World Championship to their portfolio.
One advantage the Mets have over other teams is that they have the luxury of resting Pedro and Glavine to make sure they have something left in their tank come playoff time. With a 12-game lead going into the last week of July, manager Willie Randolph is already taking advantage of this, moving to a six-man rotation for now. A 12-game lead at the end of July allows you this luxury even if four of the six have not been tested or particularly good.
Ace Pedro was selected for the All-Star Game with a 7-4 record and a 3.45 ERA, but went on the disabled list first. He should return against the Braves on Tuesday. Tom Glavine, one of the most profitable money-line pitchers in baseball this season at more than $1,131, is 11-4 on the season but hasn’t won in more than a month. Trachsel has also been profitable thanks to generous run support, but he’s been an even better bet on the total line as he’s been over-totaled in 15 of his 20 starts, not surprising considering his 5.14 ERA. This could get him through the regular season, but not to Game 3 of the World Series.
Another factor working in the Mets’ favor is general manager Omar Minaya, who has enjoyed stealing the Yankees’ headlines. He’s likely to make a move at the deadline to bolster starting pitching or bolster the embattled bullpen. Barry Zito and Dontrelle Willis have been mentioned in New York as possibilities, and while there’s little chance they’ll move, don’t rule out the Mets.
Minaya knows you don’t get much of a chance to win a World Series, and given the opportunity, he’ll be willing to part with young talent like Lastings Milledge to get one. With either Willis or Zito at the top of the rotation, the Mets become legitimate series favorites.
Although starting pitching is their Achilles heel of late, they still boast the second-lowest ERA in all of baseball, thanks to the best bullpen in the majors who could very well be sucking wind in October due to overuse.
Ironically, the strength of the Mets bullpen can be seen in their abysmal career line record where they post a 44-57 record and are under $1,354 for the season. This can be attributed to his MLB best of 22-10 in single-run games, games in which a good bullpen often makes the difference.
The Mets have rewarded sponsors on the money line this year, as they currently rank fourth in the MLB with more than $1,028. It’s just over $74 at home, but a solid $954 up on the road.